Published last week, the UK’s International Education Strategy 2026 places transnational education (TNE) at the heart of its global ambitions. With its emphasis on partnership, export growth, and flexible modes of delivery, TNE (via on-ground and online modalities) is positioned as a key mechanism for extending UK influence while widening access to high-quality education worldwide.
Recent analysis of online learning patterns, including work by Phil Hill in the US context, offers a timely lens through which to reflect on this ambition. While focused on American data, the underlying insight travels well: online and transnational education do not operate independently of place. Geography still matters — just in different, less visible ways.
Hill’s analysis shows that even in a highly developed online market, learner participation varies significantly by location. Institutional reach and student behaviour do not neatly align. Large providers may operate nationally or globally, but learners’ engagement remains shaped by local factors such as employment patterns, infrastructure, cost, and access to physical alternatives.
This insight has direct implications for the UK’s TNE strategy.
The International Education Strategy rightly emphasises scale, partnership, and the expansion of UK provision overseas. However, the evidence suggests that successful transnational education depends less on replicating UK models abroad and more on understanding local learning ecosystems. Online and hybrid delivery can widen access, but only when aligned with the realities of learners’ lives.
In this sense, TNE should not be seen simply as an export mechanism, but as a contextualised form of provision that sits at the intersection of:
- local labour markets
- digital infrastructure
- cultural expectations of education
- regulatory environments
- and learner support systems
Hill’s work reinforces a key point that is sometimes underplayed in policy narratives: online education amplifies existing conditions rather than neutralising them. Where infrastructure is strong and support systems are in place, online and transnational provision can flourish. Where they are not, scale alone does not guarantee impact and we can see the digital divides deepen.
This is particularly relevant as the UK seeks to expand TNE through branch campuses, online degrees, blended delivery, and partnerships with overseas institutions. The strategy’s emphasis on quality assurance, local partnerships, and system-level collaboration is therefore well placed — but its success will depend on how deeply these principles are embedded in practice.
Crucially, this also reframes how success should be measured. Growth in enrolments or geographic footprint tells only part of the story. Long-term value will be determined by learner outcomes, persistence, progression, and the extent to which UK provision genuinely aligns with local needs.
What This Means for UK TNE Strategy
- The UK’s competitive advantage lies in partnership, not replication. Trust, quality, and contextual intelligence are what differentiate UK provision internationally.is is a valuable reminder that online education is shaped as much by context as by technology. For UK institutions navigating the next phase of digital transformation, this is not just an interesting observation — it is a strategic warning and an opportunity to think more carefully about who online learning really serves.
- TNE must be context-aware, not just scalable. Local conditions shape participation and outcomes.
- Online delivery is not a substitute for local understanding. Partnerships matter more than platforms.
- Student location data should inform strategic decisions. Not just recruitment, but support and design.
- Quality and sustainability depend on alignment. Effective TNE responds to regional realities, not just global ambition.
Hill’s analysis can complement the UK strategy. It underscores the importance of moving beyond assumptions of frictionless global delivery and towards a more mature model of transnational education — one that treats place, context, and learner experience as central design considerations rather than secondary factors.
Kate Lindsay Blogs 